PollWatch

[dudelsack]

Nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow night.

Except that I'll be drunk.

Deffffinitely drunk. Hoohah.

[Rspaight]

Final Rasmussen: Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5
Still within the MOE, but I hate to see Bush over 50.

Zogby EV Call: Bush 247, Kerry 264, Tie 27 (Florida)
(They call Ohio for Bush and PA for Kerry, which matches my hunches.)

I don't think there's going to be a new WaPo today, and Electoral-vote.com is done as well.

Ryan

[Rspaight]

New Zogby:

Zogby EV Call: Bush 252, Kerry 252, Tie 34 (Pennsylvania 21, Virginia 13)

He's given Florida to Bush, given Colorado to Kerry (!), moved VA from Bush to tie, and PA from Kerry to tie.

Ouch. Not that this necessarily means anything, but that's painful.

Needless to say, if Kerry loses FL, PA and OH, it's all over. There's no math in the world that can help him then. (Likewise, if he wins all three, there's no way Bush can win.)

8:00 is a *long* time off...

Ryan

[Rspaight]

New Electoral-vote.com - 262 Kerry, 261 Bush, 15 Tied (NJ)

Good grief. Now I have to worry about NJ?

Ryan

[Rspaight]

OK, guys and gals, take this with a *huge* grain of salt, since the early numbers are notoriously inaccurate (morning voters vs. evening voters, highly motivated voters in the morning, etc.), but here's the early exit polls from VNS. (The ones the news companies get but aren't allowed to talk about until the polls close.)

Code: Select all

         AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry    45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush     55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41


Even given the fudge factor, those are heartening PA, WI and MN numbers. OH and FL still make me nervous, but a Kerry lead is better than a Bush lead, I guess.

I say it again -- if Kerry can take the OH/PA/FL trifecta, he wins. If he loses all three, he loses.

Anything in between is up for grabs.

Ryan

[Rspaight]

Holy crap -- campaignline just called it for Kerry.

FINAL ODDS POSTED 2:25 PM: John Kerry (D) favored over George Bush (R), 200 to 199 (50.1% chance)

ANALYSIS: Most conventional, measureable methods of analysis point to a slim Bush win. Bush has maintained a tiny lead in national polling. But unconventional methods of analysis that take into account voter composition, turnout and intensity indicate a Kerry victory, especially in key states.

As I mentioned yesterday, they've favored Bush for reelection since Jan. 2001.

I dare not hope, especially with those scary Zogby numbers. But it's still wide open.

Ryan

[Rspaight]

More random numbers from the ether (supposedly exit polls). Take 'em for what they are.

K-B: USA: 50-49 FL: 50-49 OH: 50-49 Colorado: 48-50 NM: 50-48

Ryan

[Rspaight]

OK, last poll. I'm heading over to the Election Night thread for the duration.

Zogby EV as of 5:00 PM:

Bush 213 / Kerry 311 / Too Close Nevada (5), Colorado (9)

Zogby gives Kerry the magic FL/OH/PA triple crown. Interestingly, he predicts Kerry will lose the popular vote 49.4%/49.1%.

Now for the real numbers....

Ryan

[Rspaight]

Final Rasmussen: Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5

Rasmussen nailed it. Nailed it. I know which poll I'm watching closely next time.

Zogby fell on his face at the last minute with a bunch of wild picks for Kerry, and has a mea culpa of sorts up on his site now.

Ryan