PollWatch
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Beatlesfan03
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- Location: Another red state :(
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Rspaight
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Rasmussen - Bush ahead, 48.7/46.7
WaPo - Bush ahead, 49/48
Zogby - tied, 47/47
Electoral-vote.com - Kerry 236 / Bush 281 / Tied 21
It's all statistical noise. Unless something happens to change momentum significantly over the weekend, this is going down to the wire.
Ryan
WaPo - Bush ahead, 49/48
Zogby - tied, 47/47
Electoral-vote.com - Kerry 236 / Bush 281 / Tied 21
It's all statistical noise. Unless something happens to change momentum significantly over the weekend, this is going down to the wire.
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney
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Rspaight
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Here's a little perspective: the CNN tracking poll from 2000.
Bush first, then Gore.
10/27: 52/39
10/28: 49/42
10/29: 49/42
10/30: 47/44
10/31: 47/44
11/1: 48/43
11/2: 47/43
11/3: 48/42
11/4: 47/43
11/5: 48/43
(Access from the link at the bottom of this page: http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITIC ... king.poll/ )
Gore, of course, ended up winning 48.4/47.9.
Ryan
Bush first, then Gore.
10/27: 52/39
10/28: 49/42
10/29: 49/42
10/30: 47/44
10/31: 47/44
11/1: 48/43
11/2: 47/43
11/3: 48/42
11/4: 47/43
11/5: 48/43
(Access from the link at the bottom of this page: http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITIC ... king.poll/ )
Gore, of course, ended up winning 48.4/47.9.
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney
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Rspaight
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Holy shit.
Rasmussen - Bush ahead, 48.1/47.1
WaPo - Tied, 48/48
Zogby - Tied, 48/48
Electoral-vote.com - Kerry 283 / Bush 246 / Tied 9
Rasmussen says:
Ryan
Rasmussen - Bush ahead, 48.1/47.1
WaPo - Tied, 48/48
Zogby - Tied, 48/48
Electoral-vote.com - Kerry 283 / Bush 246 / Tied 9
Rasmussen says:
Sunday October 31, 2004--Two days to go and the race for the White House remains excruciatingly close. To this point, the bin Laden video has had no measurable impact on the race.
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney
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lukpac
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With things this close, I would think Kerry would have to have the edge. I really hope I'm right.
"I know because it is impossible for a tape to hold the compression levels of these treble boosted MFSL's like Something/Anything. The metal particulate on the tape would shatter and all you'd hear is distortion if even that." - VD
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lukpac
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This shit makes no sense...
CNN says:
But click on "Opinion poll figures" (you'll have to do it from CNN) and the story is:
They have Kerry up +8 in both Likely AND Registered in Minnesota, so it's not like they just got the two states mixed up. So I have no idea what the hell they are talking about.
And Zogby still has Kerry up in WI:
CNN says:
Likely voters surveyed in six major showdown states indicated that they are almost evenly split in their support for President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry, according a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday.
A separate Gallup poll of likely voters indicated a similar split nationwide, with 49 percent choosing Bush and 47 percent taking Kerry -- a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 percent.
In the battleground state polls, only in two places did a survey indicate a clear advantage to a candidate, given the same margin of error. (Opinion poll figures)
Those states were Wisconsin, where Bush led by 8 points, and Minnesota, where Kerry led by 8 points.
But click on "Opinion poll figures" (you'll have to do it from CNN) and the story is:
Likely Voters (WI):
Kerry - 52%
Bush - 44%
Nader - 1%
No opinion - 3%
Registered Voters (WI):
Kerry- 46%
Bush - 49%
Nader - 1%
No opinion - 4%
Sampling error - +/- 3
They have Kerry up +8 in both Likely AND Registered in Minnesota, so it's not like they just got the two states mixed up. So I have no idea what the hell they are talking about.
And Zogby still has Kerry up in WI:
Code: Select all
WISCONSIN 10 Electoral Votes 2000 Vote: Gore
Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.
Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.
ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT
BUSH (R) KERRY (D) Other Undecided
Oct. 24 48% 45% 3% 4%
Oct. 25 48% 46% 2% 4%
Oct. 26 46% 48% 1.6% 4%
Oct. 27 46% 50% 1.4% 4%
Oct. 28 46% 49% 1.2% 4%
Oct. 29 45% 50% 1.8% 3%
Oct. 30 44% 52% 2% 2%
Oct. 31 44% 51% 3% 2%"I know because it is impossible for a tape to hold the compression levels of these treble boosted MFSL's like Something/Anything. The metal particulate on the tape would shatter and all you'd hear is distortion if even that." - VD
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Rspaight
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CNN/Gallup is worthless, that's why I don't report them. They insist on oversampling Republicans. As far as the above snafu goes, I have no clue.
Here's a preview of today's action (more later as it's released):
Electoral-vote.com has Kerry with 298, Bush with 231, and 9 tied.
Ryan
Here's a preview of today's action (more later as it's released):
Electoral-vote.com has Kerry with 298, Bush with 231, and 9 tied.
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney
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Rspaight
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Rasmussen - Bush ahead, 48.8/47.4
WaPo - Bush ahead, 49/48
Zogby - Bush ahead, 48/47
Electoral-vote.com - Kerry 298 / Bush 231 / Tied 9
WaPo - Bush ahead, 49/48
Zogby - Bush ahead, 48/47
Electoral-vote.com - Kerry 298 / Bush 231 / Tied 9
Last edited by Rspaight on Mon Nov 01, 2004 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney
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Rspaight
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And because I just can't resist:
Fox News - Kerry ahead, 48/46
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110104_poll.pdf
Ryan
Fox News - Kerry ahead, 48/46
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110104_poll.pdf
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney
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Rspaight
- Posts: 4386
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If you really want to get down and dirty with probability theory, check out this site:
http://election.princeton.edu/
Short version: if undecideds break for Kerry (as history says they will -- undecideds generally vote against the incumbent) and turnout is high (which it should be -- both sides see the election as very important), then Kerry will win with over 300 electoral votes.
If turnout is low and the undecideds don't shift either way, Bush will win in a squeaker.
This is why the GOP is fighting so hard to keep people away from the polls. High turnout = Kerry win, low turnout = Bush win.
Ryan
http://election.princeton.edu/
Short version: if undecideds break for Kerry (as history says they will -- undecideds generally vote against the incumbent) and turnout is high (which it should be -- both sides see the election as very important), then Kerry will win with over 300 electoral votes.
If turnout is low and the undecideds don't shift either way, Bush will win in a squeaker.
This is why the GOP is fighting so hard to keep people away from the polls. High turnout = Kerry win, low turnout = Bush win.
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney
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Rspaight
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OK, kids, this one surprises me. I've watched this site for a while and didn't expect this. Bolding mine.
http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm
Nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow night.
Except that I'll be drunk.
Ryan
http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm
George W. Bush (R) and John F. Kerry (D), even (50% chance each; Bush chances downgraded Nov. 1 from 50.5% chance; downgraded Oct. 27 from 51% chance; upgraded from 50.6% chance Oct. 17; downgraded from 51% chance Oct. 14; downgraded Sept. 30 from 51.7% chance; upgraded Sept. 18 from 51% chance; upgraded Sept. 4 from 50.5% chance)
Analysis: For the first time since January 2001 Bush has lost his advantage in The Political Oddsmaker. There is some evidence, though contradictory, that indicates a slight shift in Kerry's favor during the last 48 hours. Can Bush firm it up today? Or will the slide continue? It seems that most of the political indicators have broken down given the closeness of the race and the conflicting data being reported.
Nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow night.
Except that I'll be drunk.
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney