PollWatch

[Rspaight]

Let's use this thread to obsess over polls.

Today, for the first time since August, Kerry has taken the lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Preside ... g_Poll.htm

Note that the War on Terror and "better leader" numbers are turning against Bush as well.

Too close to call. It might just all come down to Florida again. Shudder.

Ryan

[Rspaight]

Other stuff from over the weekend:

Zogby

Likely Voters, 3-way
Bush 48 (+1)
Kerry 46 (+1)
Nader 1 (unchanged)

ABC News/WaPo

Likely Voters, 3-way
Bush 49 (-1)
Kerry 48 (+2)
Nader 1 (unchanged)

Newsweek

Likely Voters, 3-way
Bush 48 (-2)
Kerry 46 (+2)
Nader 1 (unchanged)

Registered Voters, 3-way
Bush 46 (-2)
Kerry 46 (unchanged)
Nader 2 (+1)

[Rspaight]

Kerry now ahead in the WaPo tracking poll, 49/48:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/po ... rting.html

Ryan

[Beatlesfan03]

I know that you can only these for so much, but just out of curiousity, which would you say is the most reliable poll?

I'm curious to see if the missing weapons will make an influence this week.

[Beatlesfan03]

As for your Florida comment, I think we're going to be the next Florida. Lots of elections headaches in the good old PD as of late.

[Rspaight]

I know that you can only these for so much, but just out of curiousity, which would you say is the most reliable poll?

I know Gallup oversamples Republicans, so that one's an outlier. (And they have Bush five points up right now, so that probably means a tie, like everywhere else.) Rasmussen is consistent, but might be skewed a bit Republican (not a lot). Zogby is pretty good, I think.

Other than that, they're all saying the same stuff right now. Dead even, but Kerry with the momentum. If he keeps it through the week, he wins. If not, God only knows.

And you could well be right re: Ohio. The state polling I'm seeing suggests that Florida is tighter than Ohio, but it sounds like you guys have a bigger potential for procedural and legal snafus.

Hang on tight.

Ryan

[Beatlesfan03]

And you could well be right re: Ohio. The state polling I'm seeing suggests that Florida is tighter than Ohio, but it sounds like you guys have a bigger potential for procedural and legal snafus.

Well, The PD has Kerry up 49% to Bush's 48% (I don't have it in front me, regardless Kerry was ahead slightly). Before the first debate Bush was ahead by 5 points. Cuyahoga County (where I'm at) isn't the problem, Kerry has had a sizable lead on Bush since he was announced as the candidate.

In regards to some of the voter issues popping up, I just feel sorry for the poor fool that's going to deny "Jive Ass Turkey" his right to vote when he shows up to the polls on Election Day.

[Rspaight]

Zogby has Bush up five on Ohio as of yesterday (42/47), with Bush up three in Florida (46/49) at the same time. The biggest thing I take away from that, though, is that Bush just can't break 50 percent. Since undecideds historically break for the incumbent, that's bad news for him.

Here's a good tool:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

(In my state, Bush is up 17. So I'm a mere spectator.)

Ryan

[krabapple]

the *margins of error* put all the figures in dead-heat territory, do they not?

Do people understand what that means? Quoting poll numbers without error stats is meaningless.

[Rspaight]

Yup. That's what I've been saying all along -- this thing is tied. Bush up one or Kerry up two doesn't mean squat when the MOE is three.

I still get some sort of geeky rush from watching the trends, though.

Ryan

[Ess Ay Cee Dee]

(In my state, Bush is up 17. So I'm a mere spectator.)

No matter how bad things get, I can always console myself with the fact that I live in a Blue state where Gore won by a landslide in 2000.

[Beatlesfan03]

the *margins of error* put all the figures in dead-heat territory, do they not?

Do people understand what that means? Quoting poll numbers without error stats is meaningless.

Absolutely. I was just curious if there was such a thing as a somewhat reliable polling source.

As for the poll in Saturday's Cleveland Plain Dealer, the error margin I believe was +/- 5 which translated into bungled Plain Dealer stats means an actual error margin of +/- 40 or 50.

I talked to my mom tonight whose in Knoxville and she said that on Saturday, the Knoxville paper said Bush was way ahead of Kerry in early voting results. She said yesterday's paper said the two were now in a dead-heat.

I've got a feeling it's going to be a long night next Tuesday.

[krabapple]

There's an excellent article/profile of the man behind the Zogby polls, in llast week's New Yorker.

[Rspaight]

Rasmussen tied today: 47.8 each.

Zogby spread remains at three, except each gains a point - Bush 49/Kerry 46/Nader 1/Undecided 3. At this same point in 2000, Bush/Gore/Nader/Undecided was 45/42/5/7. Same spread, fewer undecideds. Bad news for Kerry, unless he can crank up the momentum.

Ryan

[Beatlesfan03]

And you could well be right re: Ohio. The state polling I'm seeing suggests that Florida is tighter than Ohio, but it sounds like you guys have a bigger potential for procedural and legal snafus.

Hang on tight.

Ryan

From the Washington Post via MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6331781/

Some fear Ohio will be Florida of 2004
Controversy looms amid confusing rules, partisan bickering
By Paul Farhi and Jo Becker
Updated: 11:07 p.m. ET Oct. 25, 2004

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Democrats and Republicans here traded accusations of voter fraud, obstruction and intimidation Monday as officials grappled with what is becoming a confused — and potentially chaotic — presidential election in this critical battleground state.

As Democrats marched through the downtown streets of the state capital with banners reading "Not This Time!" and chanting "Count every vote," Republicans continued to challenge the eligibility of thousands of newly registered voters. This presented state election officials with the prospect of holding thousands of hearings over the next week to determine who can cast a ballot on Nov. 2.

'A storm is brewing'
The continuing legal and bureaucratic uncertainties have heightened fears that Ohio could be on the verge of becoming the next Florida, which could not determine a winner for 36 days after the 2000 election. Polls here show President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.)in a statistical dead heat in a state that both campaigns need to win.

"A storm is brewing in Ohio," Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman (D) said today. "The day after Election Day, we've got to make sure the sun is shining. By that, I mean each and every vote has to be counted."

Among the looming concerns:

* Republicans have already filed 35,000 challenges to voters' eligibility and are preparing to send recruits into 8,000 polling places next Tuesday to challenge other voters they suspect are not eligible, particularly hundreds of thousands of the newly registered. Democrats are alarmed at the effort, saying it could tie up voting and keep many away from the polls.
* Ohio's voter-registration rolls contain more than 120,000 duplicate names, and an untold number of ineligible voters, such as people who have moved out of the state. A review of the rolls by the Columbus Dispatch even found a murder victim and two suspected terrorists among the eligible.
* Democrats fear that polling places will be inadequately staffed and equipped to handle the crush of voters on Election Day. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Ohio) said Monday she was concerned that many new voters will not get proper notification from county election boards about where to vote -- a critical issue in light of a federal appeals court ruling Saturday that voters with provisional ballots -- back-up ballots for voters whose names do not appear on the rolls -- must cast them in their own precinct for the votes to count.

In an interview, J. Kenneth Blackwell, Ohio's secretary of state, acknowledged that the state may experience "a few hiccups" in the next eight days, but he dismissed notions of widespread trouble on Nov. 2. "You manage against systemic choking," said Blackwell, whom Democrats have criticized for his dual role as co-chairman of Bush's reelection campaign in Ohio. "I don't think we'll have systemic choking. I don't anticipate the kind of confusion we saw in Florida."

Challenges challenged
But Democrats, and some election officials as well, say the most potentially disruptive action could be Republican challenges of voters' eligibility filed over the past few days. Although some of the more than 35,000 challenges have been withdrawn or rejected by county officials, about 25,000 are still pending.

The Democratic Party and the Kerry-Edwards campaign sent letters Monday to Ohio's 88 county election boards asking them to dismiss the challenges, arguing that they are "unfair" and "arbitrary" and that the Ohio GOP has not provided sufficient evidence under state law that the voters challenged are, in fact, ineligible.

The rules for challenging voters vary from state to state, and officials nationwide are bracing for an onslaught. In Ohio, the state GOP is drawing on a little-used 1953 law to file its pre-election challenges.

Ohio law states that a party can challenge a voter's eligibility if the challenger has a reasonable doubt that the person is a citizen, is at least 18, or is a legal resident of the state or the county where he shows up to vote. The law also states that local election boards must give voters challenged before Election Day three days' notice before holding a mandatory hearing, no later than two days before the election.

It is not clear, however, how election officials can hold so many hearings, or what they should do after them.

Gwen Dillingham, the Cuyahoga County deputy election director, said 15,000 to 18,000 pre-election challenges have been filed in the Cleveland area, a traditional Democratic stronghold. "I don't know how we're going to find those people to tell them there's a hearing," she said.

Charges of voter fraud
Republicans have pointed to what they contend is widespread evidence of fraud in voter registration. Making the rounds on the Sunday talk shows, for instance, RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie pointed out that in Franklin County, there are more registered voters than the latest census shows there are age-eligible residents.

But election officials and other experts say there is a reasonable explanation for bloated election rolls that has nothing to do with fraud: The National Voter Registration Act prohibits them from purging voters from the rolls for four years after an initial notification is sent.

"It's unfortunate that there seems to be an assumption that there's fraud behind every problem," said Kay Maxwell, president of the League of Women Voters. "There often is a simple explanation. And we're very concerned that these challenges will intimidate people and keep them from voting."

Some boards, including in the two counties that are home to the cities of Columbus and Dayton, are tossing out most of the GOP's pre-election challenges because the party made technical errors in filing them.

Of the 4,200 challenges filed in Franklin County, officials have determined that only 1,600 are valid. Election Board Director Matthew M. Damschroder, a Republican, said that his board will hold the required hearings on the challenges that remain, but will more than likely keep every last voter on the rolls and allow those voters to cast provisional ballots.

One irony of the GOP challenges in Franklin County and Montgomery County is that many of those challenged are overseas military members — often Republican supporters — whose mail cannot be forwarded, officials in both counties said.

Conflicting rules
Although Ohio law specifies that removing a successfully challenged voter from the rolls is an option, that conflicts with the rules laid out by the National Voter Registration Act. Moreover, local Ohio election boards are bipartisan, with two Republican members and two Democrats, leaving the potential for deadlocks.

Steve Harsman, the Democratic deputy director of the Montgomery County Board of Elections, said he worries that Election Day challenges could create "such congestion at the polls" that people waiting in line will give up and go home.

"The aim of this is to sow confusion and suppress the vote by creating questions about the eligibility of completely eligible voters, said Bob Bauer, one of the chief lawyers for the Democratic National Committee.

Those who marched to Blackwell's office in Columbus appeared to agree. "We cannot forget what happened in Florida," Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), a veteran of the civil rights movement of the 1960s, told the crowd. "And it will not happen here.