Poindexter strikes again. What an amazingly lamebrained idea.
Story on Yahoo
Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks
By CARL HULSE The New York Times
WASHINGTON, July 28 - The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.
Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.
One of the two senators, Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota, said the idea seemed so preposterous that he had trouble persuading people it was not a hoax. "Can you imagine," Mr. Dorgan asked, "if another country set up a betting parlor so that people could go in and is sponsored by the government itself people could go in and bet on the assassination of an American political figure?"
After Mr. Dorgan and his fellow critic, Ron Wyden of Oregon, spoke out, the Pentagon sought to play down the importance of a program for which the Bush administration has sought $8 million through 2005. The White House also altered the Web site so that the potential events to be considered by the market that were visible earlier in the day at www.policyanalysismarket.org could no longer be seen.
But by that time, Republican officials in the Senate were privately shaking their heads over the planned trading. One top aide said he hoped that the Pentagon had a good explanation for it.
The Pentagon, in defending the program, said such futures trading had proven effective in predicting other events like oil prices, elections and movie ticket sales.
"Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective and timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information," the Defense Department said in a statement. "Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions."
According to descriptions given to Congress, available at the Web site and provided by the two senators, traders who register would deposit money into an account similar to a stock account and win or lose money based on predicting events.
"For instance," Mr. Wyden said, "you may think early on that Prime Minister X is going to be assassinated. So you buy the futures contracts for 5 cents each. As more people begin to think the person's going to be assassinated, the cost of the contract could go up, to 50 cents.
"The payoff if he's assassinated is $1 per future. So if it comes to pass, and those who bought at 5 cents make 95 cents. Those who bought at 50 cents make 50 cents."
The senators also suggested that terrorists could participate because the traders' identities will be unknown.
"This appears to encourage terrorists to participate, either to profit from their terrorist activities or to bet against them in order to mislead U.S. intelligence authorities," they said in a letter to Admiral Poindexter, the director of the Terrorism Information Awareness Office, which the opponents said had developed the idea.
The initiative, called the Policy Analysis Market, is to begin registering up to 1,000 traders on Friday. It is the latest problem for the advanced projects agency, or Darpa, a Pentagon unit that has run into controversy for the Terrorism Information Office. Admiral Poindexter once described a sweeping electronic surveillance plan as a way of forestalling terrorism by tapping into computer databases to collect medical, travel, credit and financial records.
Worried about the reach of the program, Congress this year prohibited what was called the Total Information Awareness program from being used against Americans. Its name was changed to the Terrorism Information Awareness program.
This month, the Senate agreed to block all spending on the program. The House did not. Mr. Wyden said he hoped that the new disclosure about the trading program would be the death blow for Admiral Poindexter's plan.
The Pentagon did not provide details of the program like how much money participants would have to deposit in accounts. Trading is to begin on Oct. 1, with the number of participants initially limited to 1,000 and possibly expanding to 10,000 by Jan. 1.
"Involvement in this group prediction process should prove engaging and may prove profitable," the Web site said.
The overview of the plan said the market would focus on the economic, civil and military futures of Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Iraq (news - web sites), Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey and the consequences of United States involvement with those nations. The creators of the market envision other trappings of existing markets like derivatives.
In a statement, Darpa said the trading idea was "currently a small research program that faces a number of major technical challenges and uncertainties."
"Chief among these," the agency said, "are: Can the market survive and will people continue to participate when U.S. authorities use it to prevent terrorist attacks? Can futures markets be manipulated by adversaries?"
Mr. Dorgan and Mr. Wyden called for an immediate end to the project and said they would use its existence to justify cutting off financial support for the overall effort. In the letter to Admiral Poindexter, they called the initiative a "wasteful and absurd" use of tax dollars.
"The American people want the federal government to use its resources enhancing our security, not gambling on it," the letter said.
Pentagon to open betting on terrorism, assassinations
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mikenycLI
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Here's a followup story from washingtonpost.com...
Pentagon Cancels Terrorism Betting Plan
By KEN GUGGENHEIM
The Associated Press
Tuesday, July 29, 2003; 7:06 PM
WASHINGTON - Under fire from all sides, the Pentagon on Tuesday dropped plans for a futures market that would have allowed traders to profit from accurate predictions on terrorism, assassinations and other events in the Middle East.
Republicans said they knew nothing about the program and would never have approved it. They called the head of the Pentagon agency overseeing the project to Capitol Hill to answer questions.
Democrats demanded details of any related Pentagon programs, an apology from the Bush administration and the firing of those responsible for the market.
"I think those who thought it up ought not only close down the program. They ought not be on the public payroll any longer," said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D, at a news conference.
At a hearing where senators criticized the program, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said, "I share your shock at this kind of program." But he also defended the Pentagon office that came up with the project, saying "it is brilliantly imaginative in places where we want them to be imaginative."
Dorgan and Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., touched off the furor Monday by disclosing details of the Policy Analysis Market, a project that seemed so bizarre that some lawmakers said they thought it was a hoax.
The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, working with two private partners, would have set up an Internet futures trading market on events in the Middle East. Traders could buy and sell futures contracts based on their predictions about what would happen in the region. Examples given on the market's Web site included the assassination of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and a biological weapons attack on Israel.
Investors were to begin registering Friday and trading was to begin Oct. 1.
From the trading patterns, the Pentagon agency, known as DARPA, hoped to gain clues about possible terrorist attacks. In statements Monday and Tuesday, it said markets are often better than experts in making predictions.
But the response from both parties was outrage.
"This program could provide an incentive actually to commit acts of terrorism," Democratic Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota said on the Senate floor. He described it as a "plan to trade in death."
Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee asked Appropriations Committee Chairman Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, and Armed Services Chairman John Warner, R-Va., to make sure the market wasn't funded.
"I cannot conceive of any reason why the United States government should be involved in a project of this nature," Frist said.
By late morning, Warner and Wolfowitz, at separate hearings, announced the program would be ended.
As he praised DARPA at a Senate Foreign Relations hearing, Wolfowitz said with a smile, "It sounds like maybe they got too imaginative."
Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., told Wolfowitz, "I don't think we can laugh off that program."
"There is something very sick about it," she said. "And if it's going to end, I think you ought to end the careers of whoever it was thought that up. Because terrorists knowing they were planning an attack could have bet on the attack and collected a lot of money. It's a sick idea."
Warner said he had spoken with the head of DARPA, Tony Tether, who agreed the program should end.
Warner said in an interview that DARPA "didn't think through the full ramifications of the program."
Senators said they had only vague information about the DARPA project that included the market. That project, FutureMAP, or "Futures Markets Applied to Predictions," will end along with the market Web site, the Pentagon said.
The Pentagon had requested $3 million for FutureMAP next year. The senators said the money attracted little attention in the overall the $3 billion DARPA budget proposal.
About $750,000 had been approved for FutureMAP in past budgets.
"It's totally unauthorized as far as we're concerned," Stevens said. "No funds should have been used for it at all. It's really a serious mistake on the part of DARPA."
Tether was called to Capitol Hill to meet with Warner and Sen. Pat Roberts, chairman of the Intelligence Committee and Armed Services' emerging threats subcommittee.
Warner's spokesman, John Ullyot, described the meeting as businesslike and professional. He said the senators will submit written questions to Tether and will await responses before deciding if hearings or other actions are needed.
Tether was asked as he left whether retired Adm. John Poindexter, who runs the DARPA division that included the market program, would keep his job.
"I don't see why not," he said.
Poindexter, who runs DARPA's Information Awareness Office, is used to political storms. A former national security adviser to President Reagan, Poindexter was a key figure in the 1980s Iran-Contra scandal. In addition to FutureMAP, his office oversees the Terrorism Information Awareness project, a computerized surveillance program that has raised privacy concerns.
Asked if Poindexter remained on the DARPA payroll, Pentagon spokesman Lawrence Di Rita said, "At the moment, Admiral Poindexter continues to serve in DARPA."
---
On the Net:
DARPA's FutureMAP Web site: http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm
© 2003 The Associated Press
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dy ... ge=printer
Pentagon Cancels Terrorism Betting Plan
By KEN GUGGENHEIM
The Associated Press
Tuesday, July 29, 2003; 7:06 PM
WASHINGTON - Under fire from all sides, the Pentagon on Tuesday dropped plans for a futures market that would have allowed traders to profit from accurate predictions on terrorism, assassinations and other events in the Middle East.
Republicans said they knew nothing about the program and would never have approved it. They called the head of the Pentagon agency overseeing the project to Capitol Hill to answer questions.
Democrats demanded details of any related Pentagon programs, an apology from the Bush administration and the firing of those responsible for the market.
"I think those who thought it up ought not only close down the program. They ought not be on the public payroll any longer," said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D, at a news conference.
At a hearing where senators criticized the program, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said, "I share your shock at this kind of program." But he also defended the Pentagon office that came up with the project, saying "it is brilliantly imaginative in places where we want them to be imaginative."
Dorgan and Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., touched off the furor Monday by disclosing details of the Policy Analysis Market, a project that seemed so bizarre that some lawmakers said they thought it was a hoax.
The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, working with two private partners, would have set up an Internet futures trading market on events in the Middle East. Traders could buy and sell futures contracts based on their predictions about what would happen in the region. Examples given on the market's Web site included the assassination of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and a biological weapons attack on Israel.
Investors were to begin registering Friday and trading was to begin Oct. 1.
From the trading patterns, the Pentagon agency, known as DARPA, hoped to gain clues about possible terrorist attacks. In statements Monday and Tuesday, it said markets are often better than experts in making predictions.
But the response from both parties was outrage.
"This program could provide an incentive actually to commit acts of terrorism," Democratic Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota said on the Senate floor. He described it as a "plan to trade in death."
Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee asked Appropriations Committee Chairman Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, and Armed Services Chairman John Warner, R-Va., to make sure the market wasn't funded.
"I cannot conceive of any reason why the United States government should be involved in a project of this nature," Frist said.
By late morning, Warner and Wolfowitz, at separate hearings, announced the program would be ended.
As he praised DARPA at a Senate Foreign Relations hearing, Wolfowitz said with a smile, "It sounds like maybe they got too imaginative."
Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., told Wolfowitz, "I don't think we can laugh off that program."
"There is something very sick about it," she said. "And if it's going to end, I think you ought to end the careers of whoever it was thought that up. Because terrorists knowing they were planning an attack could have bet on the attack and collected a lot of money. It's a sick idea."
Warner said he had spoken with the head of DARPA, Tony Tether, who agreed the program should end.
Warner said in an interview that DARPA "didn't think through the full ramifications of the program."
Senators said they had only vague information about the DARPA project that included the market. That project, FutureMAP, or "Futures Markets Applied to Predictions," will end along with the market Web site, the Pentagon said.
The Pentagon had requested $3 million for FutureMAP next year. The senators said the money attracted little attention in the overall the $3 billion DARPA budget proposal.
About $750,000 had been approved for FutureMAP in past budgets.
"It's totally unauthorized as far as we're concerned," Stevens said. "No funds should have been used for it at all. It's really a serious mistake on the part of DARPA."
Tether was called to Capitol Hill to meet with Warner and Sen. Pat Roberts, chairman of the Intelligence Committee and Armed Services' emerging threats subcommittee.
Warner's spokesman, John Ullyot, described the meeting as businesslike and professional. He said the senators will submit written questions to Tether and will await responses before deciding if hearings or other actions are needed.
Tether was asked as he left whether retired Adm. John Poindexter, who runs the DARPA division that included the market program, would keep his job.
"I don't see why not," he said.
Poindexter, who runs DARPA's Information Awareness Office, is used to political storms. A former national security adviser to President Reagan, Poindexter was a key figure in the 1980s Iran-Contra scandal. In addition to FutureMAP, his office oversees the Terrorism Information Awareness project, a computerized surveillance program that has raised privacy concerns.
Asked if Poindexter remained on the DARPA payroll, Pentagon spokesman Lawrence Di Rita said, "At the moment, Admiral Poindexter continues to serve in DARPA."
---
On the Net:
DARPA's FutureMAP Web site: http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm
© 2003 The Associated Press
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dy ... ge=printer
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Rspaight
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Poindexter is such a liability -- this is the second time he's had to back off looney-tunes projects because of bipartisan outrage. The only possible explanation for his continued presence is that this job is payback for taking the fall on Iran-contra.
Ryan
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney
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mikenycLI
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Rspaight wrote:Poindexter is such a liability -- this is the second time he's had to back off looney-tunes projects because of bipartisan outrage. The only possible explanation for his continued presence is that this job is payback for taking the fall on Iran-contra.
Ryan
What would possess ANYONE from hiring a person like this ? This person is truly demented, let alone his record as a "liability" ?
This a good example of when politicians get arrogant, and they think so little of what the public, Republican OR Democrat, would think about a Nut Job like this.
This man is dangerous. That he is a former serviceman, with considerable rank, and that he was doing stuff like this before and got caught, is reprehensible. Again, I am astounded, that this person was allowed to peddle his screwy ideas at the taxpayer's expense.