PollWatch '08

Expect plenty of disagreement. Just keep it civil.
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lukpac
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Postby lukpac » Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:15 pm

Obama up by 10 in WI:

http://www.channel3000.com/politics/176 ... etail.html

MADISON, Wis. -- A WISC-TV poll of likely voters in Wisconsin conducted early this week shows Barack Obama increasing his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.

Among all likely voters, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama leads Republican Sen. John McCain 51 percent to 41 percent.

That's a wider margin than the last WISC-TV poll, released on Sept. 25, which showed Obama leading McCain by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Four percent of voters remain undecided and the margin of error in the WISC-TV poll is plus or minus 4 percent.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 5 through Oct. 6 by Research 2000.

Among men, McCain and Obama are even at 46 percent. McCain previously led by four points.

Among women in the state, Obama has extended his lead -- 56 percent to McCain's 36 percent. Five percent of women remain undecided.

University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Charles Franklin said the turning point is the economy and that's reflected in the latest poll numbers.

When survey participants were asked which presidential candidate they trust more to handle the economy, 57 percent said Obama and 31 percent said McCain, with 12 percent not sure.

The poll also determined the favorable opinions for both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Obama was 57 percent favorable and Joe Biden was 49 percent. McCain was favorable at 44 percent and Sarah Palin had a favorability rating of 42 percent.

A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone for the poll. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:48 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 349 / McCain 174 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 45 (Obama -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 77.0/McCain 24.5 (Obama +6.9, McCain -5.1)

Rasmussen's tightening up the last couple of days within the margin of error -- it'll be interesting to see if the trend continues outside the margin or if things just bounce around inside it for a while.

Intrade odds are going bonkers -- this is Obama's widest margin there ever.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:49 am

Meanwhile, here's a handy chart tracking the Republicans' chances in the election:

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RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:50 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 343 / McCain 184 (MO from Obama to tie, WV from McCain to Obama, NC from tie to McCain)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 45 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 76.2/McCain 23.4 (Obama -.8, McCain -1.1)

Not seeing a lot of movement from the debate or the Ayers offensive in tracking polls. McCain needs a major Obama screw-up or some outside event to help him. Going 100% negative hasn't done much.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Sat Oct 11, 2008 11:27 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 343 / McCain 184 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 45 (Obama +2)
Intrade odds: Obama 79.0/McCain 21.5 (Obama +2.8, McCain -1.9)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Sun Oct 12, 2008 9:18 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 343 / McCain 184 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 45 (Obama -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 77.3/McCain 22.9 (Obama -1.7, McCain +1.4)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Mon Oct 13, 2008 1:31 am

Here's something I put together last night using the poll averages from RCP/Yahoo Political Dashboard and utilizing more cautious (i.e. realistic IMHO) numbers, as well as a few historical predictions (i.e. I'm not totally convinced that West Virginia is going to go Obama regardless of what any miniscule lead might say at this point).

This thing is really a lot tighter than it appears for us Dems - using my paranoid method. Bold-type states of those still in play are our best bet to push us over. As one can see, McCain needs to run the table on the leftovers, while we only need to secure one (with a 269 tie being a worst case scenario with Nevada). The scary flipside is that even though we Dems have fairly tiny leads in all these states at this point (with some polls actually showing McCain ahead in a few), Bush won *every one* of these same states in '04! Even more sobering is that -- when all is said and done -- we've only managed to safely flip two states so far from '04!

Virginia looks like our best bet at this point. Though again, if McCain ran the table on the leftovers, we'd be stuck at 264. One state short!

Anyone see anything glaringly wrong with these numbers that I may have missed?




Dave's Electoral Vote Breakdown 2008 as of 10-12-08

Obama Probable Locks/McCain Probable Locks:


55 California/ 10 Arizona
11 Washington/ 3 Alaska
7 Oregon/ 5 Utah
5 New Mexico/ 3 Wyoming
4 Hawaii/ 3 Montana
10 Minnesota/ 5 Nebraska
7 Iowa/ 6 Kansas
10 Wisconsin/ 7 Oklahoma
21 Illinois/ 34 Texas
17 Michigan/ 4 Idaho
21 Pennsylvania/ 3 South Dakota
3 Vermont/ 3 North Dakota
4 New Hampshire/ 6 Arkansas
4 Maine/ 9 Louisiana
31 New York/ 11 Indiana
12 Massachusetts/ 8 Kentucky
4 Rhode Island/ 11 Tennessee
7 Connecticut/ 6 Mississippi
15 New Jersey/ 9 Alabama
3 Delaware/ 15 Georgia
10 Maryland/ 8 South Carolina
3 D.C./ 5 West Virginia
/11 Missouri

538 total. 270 needed to win - 269 to tie.

264/ 185


Left In Play:
(All went Republican/Red in '04!)

5 Nevada 49.2-46.3 Obama lead

9 Colorado 49.3-45.3 Obama lead
20 Ohio 48.5-45.8 Obama lead (some polls show the opposite)
13 Virginia 50.6-44.3 Obama lead
15 North Carolina 48.0-46.8 Obama lead (some polls show the opposite)
27 Florida 48.7-44.9 Obama lead



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2004 Kerry 252
Bush 286


States we Dems have switched over so far in '08.

5 New Mexico
7 Iowa
Last edited by David R. Modny on Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Rspaight » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:01 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 346 / McCain 181 (ND from McCain to Obama)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 45 (Obama -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 77.7/McCain 22.7 (Obama +.4, McCain -.2)

North Dakota? WTF?

Nice number crunching, Dave. Obama can clearly still lose this thing, but it would require *everything* to break McCain's way. Which is kind of the opposite situation from what we were in four years ago, when Kerry needed a flawless run of good fortune to beat Bush.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

Bennett Cerf
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Postby Bennett Cerf » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:52 am

Dave: My only problem with your breakdown is the lack of an "in play, McCain lead" category for Missouri and Indiana.

I share your skepticism about West Virginia, but I'm keeping an eye on it. (Have you seen this?)

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Postby David R. Modny » Mon Oct 13, 2008 11:35 am

Bennett Cerf wrote:Dave: My only problem with your breakdown is the lack of an "in play, McCain lead" category for Missouri and Indiana.


I already went ahead and gave both of those states to McCain in my "cautious scenario." I guess, in my heart, I truly fear both will break his way in the end - judging by history and trends.

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Postby David R. Modny » Mon Oct 13, 2008 1:18 pm

I'll also add that I just checked Chuck Todd's numbers and he too has 264 for Obama. The only discrepancy with McCain's numbers is that he has him at 163 vs. my 185. The difference being (as noted above) that he kept Missouri and Indiana in the toss-up column, while I went ahead and gave them to McCain (i.e. 22 votes).

So, things are starting to lock in a little. More importantly, if the polls are to be trusted (and that's always a big *if*), those six leftover states (along with MO and IN) truly need to to be watched carefully!


Edit: They just moved MO back over to Obama today on RCP/Dashboard - 49.0-46.8. So, in a couple of days, if things solidify, I'll move it away from McCain and back over to tossup (i.e. the margin of error is still small enough to keep it there, IMHO). RCP is still showing McCain in the lead in Indiana...48.8-45.0.

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Postby Bennett Cerf » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:26 pm

Obama got some good numbers from Missouri today: +3 in Rasmussen and +8 from SurveyUSA. Still, a Missouri victory would probably be padding his victory, not determining it.

I thought this quote from Steve Schmidt was interesting:

“We need to win Florida, we need to win Ohio. We feel great about our chances to do that. We feel good about our chances to win North Carolina, our chances to win Virginia. We look out across the Midwest at a number of blue states that we need to pick up and we feel that we’re competitive in those states.”


He fantasizes about blue states in the Midwest (Minnesota and Wisconsin, I guess) but doesn't mention Colorado?

I wonder if he knows that Obama could lose Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia, but still win with the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado.

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Postby Bennett Cerf » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:49 pm

Image

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:26 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 357 / McCain 181 (MO from tie to Obama)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 45 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 77.9/McCain 23.4 (Obama +.2, McCain +.7)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Tue Oct 14, 2008 5:02 pm

Good news indeed - I'm going to go ahead and move Missouri away from McCain and over to toss-up in my cautious scenario - Obama 49.0-46.8.


Dave's Electoral Vote Breakdown 2008 as of 10-14-08

Obama Probable Locks/McCain Probable Locks:


55 California/ 10 Arizona
11 Washington/ 3 Alaska
7 Oregon/ 5 Utah
5 New Mexico/ 3 Wyoming
4 Hawaii/ 3 Montana
10 Minnesota/ 5 Nebraska
7 Iowa/ 6 Kansas
10 Wisconsin/ 7 Oklahoma
21 Illinois/ 34 Texas
17 Michigan/ 4 Idaho
21 Pennsylvania/ 3 South Dakota
3 Vermont/ 3 North Dakota
4 New Hampshire/ 6 Arkansas
4 Maine/ 9 Louisiana
31 New York/ 11 Indiana
12 Massachusetts/ 8 Kentucky
4 Rhode Island/ 11 Tennessee
7 Connecticut/ 6 Mississippi
15 New Jersey/ 9 Alabama
3 Delaware/ 15 Georgia
10 Maryland/ 8 South Carolina
3 D.C./ 5 West Virginia

538 total. 270 needed to win - 269 to tie.

264/ 174


Left In Play - Bold = Best Bets:

5 Nevada 49.2-46.3 Obama lead
11 Missouri 49.0-46.8 Obama lead
9 Colorado 49.0-44.0 Obama lead
20 Ohio 48.9-45.5 Obama lead (some polls show the opposite)
13 Virginia 50.6-44.1 Obama lead
15 North Carolina 47.8-46.8 Obama lead (some polls show the opposite)
27 Florida 50.0-45.0 Obama lead



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2004 Kerry 252
Bush 286


States we Dems have switched over so far in '08.

5 New Mexico
7 Iowa