http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/6399977.htm
Politicians watching Chandler's strategy
By Ryan Alessi
HERALD-LEADER FRANKFORT BUREAU
Kentucky's race for governor already is attracting a national audience.
Politicos, the two major parties and even some presidential candidates are keeping an eye on how the race unfolds, particularly now that Democrat Ben Chandler is challenging Republican Ernie Fletcher on "the Bush economy."
Some say if Chandler's strategy succeeds, Kentucky's 2003 election could be the blueprint for other Democrats in 2004 elections across the country. And if it fails, others say, it could indicate that President Bush's popularity has not waned as much as Democrats claim -- or hope.
Fletcher, a congressman from Lexington, has publicly linked himself to the Bush administration during the campaign.
Two of Bush's cabinet members have come to Kentucky on Fletcher's behalf this summer. And the president's brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, will appear at a Fletcher fund-raiser Tuesday. The campaign also has invited the president, vice president and first lady this fall.
But this month, Chandler launched his strategy to use those ties against Fletcher. He began referring to "the Bush-Fletcher economy" in speeches and interviews, saying Kentucky voters should reject a candidate who supported Bush's economic policies, such as the recent tax-cut package.
"We have a record deficit and have lost jobs since Bush took office," Chandler said last week. "Voters aren't going to be interested in having Washington come down here and run Kentucky."
Observers say it's a gamble on Chandler's part, but one he had to take.
"What else does Chandler have to run against?" said Larry Sabato, a national expert on politics. "How does Chandler defeat the none-of-the-above candidate that Fletcher has made himself out to be?"
Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Governmental Studies, said Fletcher has been effective at telling voters that Frankfort needs a new party in control. Democratic Gov. Paul Patton has-fueled voter discontent with last year's sex scandal and the recent controversy over pardoning former campaign aides for allegedly breaking campaign-finance laws.
Keeping an eye on it
The campaign theme of "it's the Bush economy" has its roots in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential run, which generated the famous slogan: "It's the economy, stupid." Those four words helped defeat Bush's father, George H.W. Bush.
While the nine Democratic presidential candidates have focused on Iraq issues of late, many have not forgotten the phrase that proved so valuable for Clinton. Many of them have criticized Bush on the deficit and the tax cuts, while others already have rolled out their own economic plans.
Thus, several campaigns say they are watching eagerly to see how Chandler's strategy plays in Kentucky -- a state Bush won handily three years ago, with 57 percent to Al Gore's 41 percent.
"We absolutely are keeping an eye to see how Kentucky voters accept that notion," said-Jamal Simmons, spokesman for Florida Sen. Bob Graham's presidential campaign.
Robert Gibbs, spokesman for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, said hitting on voters' pocketbooks makes for "a very strong message."
Kentucky, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, lost 29,380 jobs between December 2000 and April 2003.
"All we've seen thus far is state after state watching those jobs disappear," Gibbs said. "Holding the president and holding members of Congress accountable for that is going to be an important message."
President Bush's re-election campaign, however, declined to talk about strategy.
"We're just getting started here," spokesman Dan Ronayne said from the Bush-Cheney '04 headquarters in northern Virginia.
Interesting, not important
But other national party officials say the governor's race, while interesting to watch, will not have an effect on overarching strategy.
"We saw this strategy in the last election cycle, too, when candidates tried to hit on the current administration, and voters knew it was left over from the Clinton years," said Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Republicans gained seats in both the U.S. House and Senate in 2002.
In addition, he said Republican leaders will be vindicated if the economy perks up. "As long as it's starting to rebound, the Congress and the president will be seen as leading the way for that," he said. "It hasn't been the situation that we've been ignoring the problem and hoping that it goes away."
Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said any lessons to be learned from the governor's race will emerge after the election. Specifically, the committee will look for successful tactics that could be used against Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, who is up for election next year. The economy could be one, he added.
"It's a message that should resonate," Woodhouse said. "We keep hearing about this incredible revival of this economic prosperity. Where is it?"
The litmus test
Off-year elections, such as this one, are often used as barometers for the next presidential race.
In some cases, they can signify a growing frustration with the president, as Republican wins in 1993 and 1994 did for Clinton.
Or they can cement a party's power, as last year's did for the Republicans.
Though Louisiana and Mississippi are the two other states with gubernatorial elections this year, Kentucky's race offers more of a pure litmus test for strategists.
In Louisiana, four Republicans and four Democrats are slugging it out for an October runoff election. And Mississippi's race features an incumbent running for re-election: Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove faces Republican National Committee leader Haley Barbour.
But it still doesn't make Kentucky a bellwether state for the 2004 elections, said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington-based pundit who says Kentucky's election won't "reflect anything other than how Kentucky voters feel."
Rothenberg, who publishes the Rothenberg Political Report, said he's more interested in whether Chandler can overcome the stigma of Patton's problems and the recent trend of Kentucky voting more Republican.
While Rothenberg called the race "a tossup," he said Fletcher might have the inside track.
"I think I'd rather be in Ernie Fletcher's shoes right now. He represents the non-incumbent party in the race," Rothenberg said. "Sitting governors and the party of sitting governors had a very difficult time in 2002, and it looks like it's carrying over."
KY politics again: National implications?
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You know, I'm beginning to understand the meaning of "spooge" after all. Now, however, I'm uncertain if having that knowledge is a *good* thing.
Well, knowledge *is* the death of innocence, after all. Just think, knowing what "spooge" means took another tiny bit of your pure, unblemished tabula rasa away. The world takes its toll, piece by bitter piece.
In these troubled times, truly, the key to happiness is being as dumb as a box of hammers. (Which is, I can only conclude, why Dubya is smirking all the goddamn time.)
Ryan
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney