I would encourage anyone interested to follow the link below, because there are a lot of graphs and tables and stuff that I didn't bother to to re-create below.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040107.asp
T H E G A L L U P O R G A N I Z A T I O N
SOURCE: http://www.gallup.com
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POLL ANALYSES
January 7, 2004
Clark Comes on Strong in New Poll
Dean receives 24%, Clark 20% of national Democrats' support
by Lydia Saad
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean no longer holding a commanding lead among Democrats nationally in the race for his party's presidential nomination, as Democrats who are registered to vote appear to be taking a second look at retired Gen. Wesley Clark. After leading Clark by 15 and 21 points in two December polls that asked Democrats whom they supported for their party's nomination, Dean's advantage has shrunk to just 4 points in the Jan. 2-5 national survey (24% vs. 20%) -- within the poll's margin of error.
This tightening of the race among Democrats nationally mostly results from increased support for Clark, rather than a decline in support for Dean. Clark gained eight points over the last two weeks, while Dean lost three points, and the number of undecided Democrats declined by three points.
Only minor shifts in support were seen for the remaining seven candidates tested. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt are closely bunched, with each receiving between 9% and 11%. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards receives 6%, while former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun garners 3%, and the Rev. Al Sharpton and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich are tied at 2%.
Clark's current level of support is similar to what he enjoyed upon entering the race in September. At that time, however, he was the clear front-runner, leading Dean 22% to 13%. Dean had overtaken Clark by early December, and furthered his advantage following a high-profile endorsement from Al Gore. (The current poll was taken before former New Jersey Sen. and presidential candidate Bill Bradley's endorsement of Dean on Tuesday.)
Men Taking to Clark
Sample sizes for subgroups within the registered Democratic portion of this survey are generally too small for detailed analysis of voting preferences. However, there are sufficient numbers of men and women to conclude that Clark's renewed strength appears to come principally from men. Since December, Clark has picked up 14 points from men, compared with only a 6-point increase among women.
Furthermore, Clark is now the top choice among Democratic men, while women still prefer Dean. In December (looking at the two mid-December polls combined), men preferred Dean over Clark by a 2-to-1 margin (33% of men chose Dean, while 16% of men chose Clark). Today, men prefer Clark over Dean by a five-point margin (30% vs. 25%). Women's candidate preferences have changed little over this period, with women consistently favoring Dean over Clark by a substantial margin. Today, 24% of women prefer Dean for the Democratic nomination, while 13% prefer Clark.
Lead Candidates Have Similar Image Ratings
Four of the Democratic presidential candidates -- Clark, Kerry, Dean, and Gephardt -- have quite similar favorable ratings from Democrats nationally, ranging from 42% to 45%. However, when factoring in the percentage viewing each candidate unfavorably, Clark is rated slightly more positively than Dean or Gephardt. Clark's net-favorable rating (percent favorable minus percent unfavorable) is +30 among Democrats, compared with +23 for Dean and +20 for Gephardt.
The worst ratings among the leading Democratic contenders belong to Lieberman, for whom his favorable rating is only eight points higher than his unfavorable rating (41% vs. 33%).
Perhaps the most striking thing about these favorable ratings is how relatively unknown this field of candidates is compared with former Vice President Al Gore in 2000. In January 2000, 82% of Democrats had a favorable view of Gore and less than 1% had never heard of him. Despite the enormous publicity accorded Dean in recent months, a third of Democrats say they still don't know enough about him to have formulated an opinion.
The implication is that the race could become quite volatile once the presidential primaries start rolling in three weeks, and the candidates become better known.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,029 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-5, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the sub-sample of 418 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.