PollWatch '08

Expect plenty of disagreement. Just keep it civil.
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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:55 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 337 / McCain 171 (FL from Obama to tie)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 45 (Obama +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 86.7/McCain 13.0 (Obama +2.6, McCain -2.6)

Ryan - which poll seemed to be the most accurate from the last election? Was it Rasmussen?


In '04, most everyone fell over themselves at the last minute to call the race for Kerry and came out looking pretty dumb. (Particularly Zogby.) Rasmussen's final tracker, however, called the race nearly exactly. So that's why I'm following them this time. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but the outcome last time was impressive.

And what is up with the AP poll 44-43?


Fivethirtyeight.com had a good writeup on that. It seems to basically come down to the assumptions they make about who a "likely voter" is.

Among other things, the AP "likely voter" filter appears to be wildly oversampling evangelicals, as well as excluding new voters. So the real takeaway from that poll is that if only people who voted in 2004 vote in 2008 (thus negating Obama's big voter registration successes) and evangelicals double their percentage of the voting public, Obama still wins.

I think the 1-point polls are clearly outliers, as are the 15-point polls. Obama's got a solid 5-8 point lead right now. McCain made some noise about closing in after the third debate and Plumbermania, but that's starting to evaporate already after the Powell endorsement/smackdown, the backfiring of the "socialist" attacks and further Palin embarrassment.

Even worse for McCain, the electoral map looks grim for him. He has to win about half-a-dozen states that's he currently behind in (outside the margin of error). He has to win all of them. All Obama has to do is hold his lead in one of them. McCain has a hard task ahead.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Fri Oct 24, 2008 10:26 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 375 / McCain 157 (FL from tie to Obama, IN from McCain to Obama, MT from McCain to tie)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 45 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 86.9/McCain 13.8 (Obama +.2, McCain +.8 )

Jeez. If Obama walks away with Indiana and Montana, this could get ugly.

My personal definition of landslide is 100+ electoral votes and 15+ percent in the popular (or roughly 57-42 or better). That's still unlikely, but not impossible, either. (That last sentence can also be applied to a McCain victory.)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Sat Oct 25, 2008 8:49 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 375 / McCain 157 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 44 (McCain -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 86.6/McCain 13.6 (Obama -.3, McCain -.2)

Bonus Poll: (asked of Republicans)

If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?

Mitt Romney 35%
Mike Huckabee 26%
Sarah Palin 20%

Mittmentum!
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Beatlesfan03
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Postby Beatlesfan03 » Sat Oct 25, 2008 11:15 am

I'm stunned to see that Palin still got 20%. :shock:
Craig

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Sat Oct 25, 2008 11:36 am

The hardcore social conservatives love her to bits. She's a genuine Reaganesque folk hero to them. (The fact that she's heading up a brood of high school dropouts and unwed mothers makes this even more surreal and instructive.)

With any luck, she and Huckabee will split that crowd and neither one will get anywhere.

WTF? Am I really writing analysis for the 2012 Republican nomination? Fuck, shoot me.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Sat Oct 25, 2008 4:01 pm

Heck, 16% of the folks on CNN said they would **already** vote for "Joe The Plumber" if he ran for Congress!

That number's about 15% too high.

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Postby David R. Modny » Sat Oct 25, 2008 4:11 pm

In further news, 22% of the country polled said that they would support replacing the members of the entire Supreme Court with the cast of High School Musical 3.
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And...19% still argue that Aunt Bee would have made a better Town Treasurer than Howard Sprague!

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Postby David R. Modny » Sat Oct 25, 2008 4:23 pm

Life = Art:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT-SkX82qjE


or, the longer version (minus Keith's intro):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l63SRpGXBHE

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Sat Oct 25, 2008 6:43 pm

That's amazing. Even down to "my friends."
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby David R. Modny » Sat Oct 25, 2008 8:41 pm

Rspaight wrote:That's amazing. Even down to "my friends."


Yeah...I probably should have posted it around the time of Ayers Mania and debate #3. It's impact has been blunted a bit over time.

Speaking of Mayberry...go Opie!

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/cc65ed650d

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Jeff T.
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Postby Jeff T. » Sun Oct 26, 2008 2:32 am

David R. Modny wrote:Speaking of Mayberry...go Opie!

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/cc65ed650d


This is very powerful stuff if people see it.

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Postby David R. Modny » Sun Oct 26, 2008 3:19 am

Jeff T. wrote:This is very powerful stuff if people see it.


It really is. In some strange way, Andy Griffith could probably reach a sector of the population that no part of the campaign ever could. On one of the boards, someone joked that all he has to do is to cut an endorsement -- geared toward retirees while wearing his "Matlock" suit -- and Obama would easily carry Florida!

McCain and Palin have Bocephus. We'll gladly take Andy.

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:43 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 375 / McCain 157 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 44 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 86.6/McCain 13.5 (Obama unchanged, McCain -.1)

Looks pretty stable to me.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Mon Oct 27, 2008 7:03 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 375 / McCain 157 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 46 (Obama -1, McCain +2)
Intrade odds: Obama 87.2/McCain 12.8 (Obama +.6, McCain -.7)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:57 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 364 / McCain 157 (MO from Obama to tie)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 46 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 87.6/McCain 12.4 (Obama +.4, McCain -.4)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney