PollWatch '08

Expect plenty of disagreement. Just keep it civil.
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Beatlesfan03
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Postby Beatlesfan03 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:35 pm

David R. Modny wrote:Refresh my memory Craig - which state are you voting in now?

As for me, even though early voting was an option, I wanted to show up tomorrow. Old habits die hard.

I'm cautiously optimistic right now.

(That's scared shitless in Davespeak)


Dave, I am in Maryville, TN which is about 30 minutes from downtown Knoxville in one direction and 30 minutes from the Smoky Mountains in the other. Beautiful place to live, but during the political season, I would certainly love to be back home in Ohio. Well, northeast Ohio anyway. :)

Houses that had Obama signs one day are usually gone the next. My mom has hers closer to their house so if someone wants it, they really need to make an effort to get it.

I can't put my Obama magnet on my car simply because there were some early reports of cars being vandalized if the owner stated a certain political preference.

And it just seems to keep worse with each passing election. I hate to thing what tactics the right will come up with in 2012, especially if Obama has a very successful first term.
Craig

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Jeff
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Postby Jeff » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:42 pm

I'm in NY, one of the bluest states on the map. I'm still voting anyway. This will actually be my third vote for Obama, since I was living back home in Illinois in '04.

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:56 pm

Beatlesfan03 wrote:Dave, I am in Maryville, TN which is about 30 minutes from downtown Knoxville in one direction and 30 minutes from the Smoky Mountains in the other. Beautiful place to live, but during the political season, I would certainly love to be back home in Ohio. Well, northeast Ohio anyway. :)

Houses that had Obama signs one day are usually gone the next. My mom has hers closer to their house so if someone wants it, they really need to make an effort to get it.

I can't put my Obama magnet on my car simply because there were some early reports of cars being vandalized if the owner stated a certain political preference.

And it just seems to keep worse with each passing election. I hate to thing what tactics the right will come up with in 2012, especially if Obama has a very successful first term.



Interesting.

Ironically, there were a bunch of *McCain* signs looted on my street a few weeks back. While I certainly don't approve of that kind of crap, it did give me some hope that maybe the tide was turning here in (the, at times, covertly racist) Parma. Right now, it's probably 50/50 in terms of lawn signs - depending on which street you're on. I think that actually bodes pretty well for Obama. I'm hoping the labor movement here will trump any other variables. Overall, Cuyahoga County should go Dem easily.

My retired senior citizen mom and stepdad -- bless them both -- have done some door-to-door canvassing for Obama over the past couple of weeks, and they've reported some positive things from the trenches (they live in Florida the bulk of the year, but decided to stay up here a bit longer due to the election). Let's hope this all translates into votes for Obama!

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:16 pm

Of course, the GOP henchmen then have to step up with their usual shenanigans...

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... /#comments

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Jeff T.
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Postby Jeff T. » Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:43 am

And the Republicans have ALWAYS claimed moral superiority and the party that knows what's best for everyone.

They never taught me in school how rotten cheaters people can be. I had to figure that all out myself.

You know there must be a way to track down who makes those calls and sends out phony BS fliers with false election & voting info. And when you get caught at this kind of thing it should be an automatic five year jail term.

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:49 am

And...just so Luke doesn't feel left out from the GOP's chicanery:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081104/ap_ ... op_workers

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:53 am

A pretty huge jump in the final daily Zogby poll. Hopefully, the last minute, undecided voters came home to the good guys. In fact, some of the polls I've seen seem to be offering some proof of just that:

"UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 11.4 points over Republican John McCain in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll -- up from a 7.1 point advantage in yesterday's report. The final tally now stands at 54.1% for Obama compared to 42.7% for McCain. "

http://www.zogby.com/

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Tue Nov 04, 2008 7:02 am

Well, Zogby got overly exuberant in '04, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

I'm now in line at my polling place and the place is mobbed. People are circling the parking lot waiting for spaces to free up. I've got a bit more than an hour before I need to head to work, and it looks like it's going to be close.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Tue Nov 04, 2008 7:48 am

Rspaight wrote:Well, Zogby got overly exuberant in '04, so I wouldn't read too much into it.



There's a big difference though. Zogby's final national polling numbers for Bush-Kerry were 49.4% Bush, with Kerry at 49.1%. He simply made his over exuberant prediction based on state polls and some individual trends. Here, I'd say an 11% spread (with a 54% top number) is fairly encouraging. Even more so in that a) there was a pretty large jump on the final day (4%) and b) Zogby's numbers are pretty close in line with *most* other popular vote polls - somewhere between 7-12.

Of course, some of the state numbers have narrowed (some a bit more than others...such as Virginia and PA). But, a national upward trend toward Obama on the final day can only be taken as encouraging. I'll be interested to see what the 9:30 Rasmussen number shows.

I'll still sweat it out until the end...

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:34 am

Mission accomplished! Didn't take as long as I'd feared. I'm hearing reports of big turnout everywhere around here.

I agree that the latest Zog numbers aren't bad news for Obama, but I still think this is a 7-point race, not an 11-point race. I'm happy to be proved wrong (and obviously I will be thrilled if we win by 7 points).
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:44 am

I'll take a cat's whisker...lol!

(60 seat cloture would be nice too. Though, that may require divine intervention.)

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Postby David R. Modny » Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:32 am

Rasmussen remains at +6.

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:34 am

One mo' time:

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 353 / McCain 174 (MO from McCain to tie)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 46 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 91.3/McCain 9.2 (Obama +2.8, McCain -3)

Fivethirtyeight aggregate: Obama 52.0/McCain 46.1 (Obama +.5, McCain -.3)

And there's your pre-game show. See you in the election night thread tonight.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:38 am

The pundit roundup:

Carville...the eternal Senate optimist...lol:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/0 ... 40149.html

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Xenu
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Postby Xenu » Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:45 am

Y'know, I told myself I'd attend class today, and have promptly spent the entire time looking at polls. I have never been more distracted.
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