PollWatch '08

Expect plenty of disagreement. Just keep it civil.
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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:07 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 352 / McCain 171 (WV from Obama to McCain, NC from McCain to tie)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 46 (McCain +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 84.6/McCain 15.6 (Obama +6.7, McCain -7.8 )

Some polls (Rasmussen and the Res2K poll in particular) are showing some tightening, but Obama is staying at 50 or above. McCain shares on Intrade are trading in Ford territory.

I think the race will inevitably get closer at we move toward Election Day (it always seems to happen), but I haven't seen anything out there that suggests a fundamental shift in momentum. Yet.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:20 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 349 / McCain 171 (ND from Obama to tie)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 45 (McCain -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 83.3/McCain 17.1 (Obama -1.3, McCain +1.5)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:20 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 352 / McCain 171 (ND from tie to Obama)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 45 (Obama +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 83.3/McCain 16.3 (Obama unchanged, McCain -.8 )

Daily Kos has some interesting comments on the apparent tightening in the race today. Bottom line: Republican support for McCain is solidifying. My guess is that this is a result of the base getting fired up by McCain's increasingly hot-button ("Obama wants to turn the IRS into welfare") red meat campaign. That's not going to be enough.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Mon Oct 20, 2008 5:26 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 364 / McCain 171 (ND from Obama to tie, NC from tie to Obama)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 46 (Obama -1, McCain +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 84.0/McCain 16.2 (Obama +.7, McCain -.1)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:36 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 364 / McCain 171 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 46 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 84.6/McCain 15.2 (Obama +.6, McCain -1.0)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:10 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 364 / McCain 171 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 45 (Obama +1, McCain -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 84.1/McCain 15.6 (Obama -.5, McCain +.4)

Rasmussen observes:

It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.

For the past eleven days, Obama has been at the 50% or 51% level of support every day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. During those same eleven days, McCain has been at 45% or 46% every day and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and six percentage points.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Beatlesfan03 » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:28 pm

Ryan - which poll seemed to be the most accurate from the last election? Was it Rasmussen?

And what is up with the AP poll 44-43? :shock:
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Jeff T.
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Postby Jeff T. » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:14 pm

Wow, no comments here on that last debate, not one word?

Anyway, I see a poll today saying that McCain really pulled through in that last debate, has gained on Obama, and now both are in a dead heat!

I think the press just needs a story. And like any type of game it adds suspense when you have a teetering scale showing one gaining and then the other gaining and so on. When the truth is not good enough for the press to sell a story on.

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Postby Beatlesfan03 » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:04 pm

Jeff T. wrote:Wow, no comments here on that last debate, not one word?

Anyway, I see a poll today saying that McCain really pulled through in that last debate, has gained on Obama, and now both are in a dead heat!

I think the press just needs a story. And like any type of game it adds suspense when you have a teetering scale showing one gaining and then the other gaining and so on. When the truth is not good enough for the press to sell a story on.


That's the AP poll I refer to in my post. It doesn't seem to make much sense. I do believe the race will tighten, but I don't think it will get that tight.
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Jeff T.
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Postby Jeff T. » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:11 pm

I honestly do not think that enough people even watched the debate to have that much of an effect. People have decided already for the most part.

And only big scandals, or public screw-ups, etc. will have an effect. Had the bailout passage jolted Wall Street in a massive positive way, it might have had an effect. But even that is a liability. It's basically like the government saying we need to max out your credit now, sorry. It was one of the worst things just when you thought Bush could not do any worse.

I can't wait until this is over and we can get onto the real recovery.
Last edited by Jeff T. on Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby David R. Modny » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:13 pm

I watched the third debate and, like most polls, felt that Obama won convincingly. Luke's board went down that night, which is probably why there weren't any comments.

As far as that AP poll goes, I personally feel it's an outlier. They used a different methodology this time compared to their last in early October. However, some things don't add up. For instance, this time they claimed to use a heavy cell phone sample - an area where one would *think* that Obama would actually benefit. Furthermore, Obama actually gained in several daily tracking polls in the last couple of days -- including Zogby, Rasmussen and FOX (of all places!) -- even up to the point of a double digit lead in some others. This also caught my eye in terms of the AP poll:

"The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters."

I also feel that the Associated Press has an agenda which has shown itself over the last few months (e.g. Washington Bureau Chief Ron Fournier, and his near political relationship with McCain). Though, that's just my personal take. In that regard, I think it's a shame that many news portals chose to run with the AP story for the sake of headlines, while discounting the other (several) polls with Obama *increases*.


In terms of accuracy, Rasmussen claims to currently have bragging rights - based on the primaries and, as I recall, the '04 election. Rasmussen was formed by ESPN founder Scott Rasmussen. He's a hard-line Evangelical, so I don't think anyone will ever accuse them of liberal bias. In the past, I would have put heavy stock in Zogby's numbers...though he predicted a Kerry victory in '04 based on his polling.

Bottom line: These popular vote polls should all be taken with a grain of salt anyway. At best, they're markers for predicting trends or perhaps in leading the "blind voter" who simply wants to follow the crowd. That's not to say they should be totally discounted (i.e. again...the "blind follower" voter), but it's really the state-by-state electoral trends and numbers that have my interest.
Last edited by David R. Modny on Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Jeff T.
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Postby Jeff T. » Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:00 am

Yeah, the board went down on my end as well. I thought that the heavy useage might have crashed it. :lol:

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Postby David R. Modny » Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:31 am

More on that cooked AP poll - note the Evangelical disparity:

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-121863


And...today's Zogby Poll. Obama's largest lead yet:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1605

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Jeff T.
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Postby Jeff T. » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:47 am

I am very concerned about a stolen election. It could happen again.

But one thing I found interesting is that Karl Rove had said what he said about Obama would win the election if it was held today. Remember that comment a couple weeks back?

For a person of his position (however tainted and however now removed) to say that imo says a lot. You just don't say that even behind the scenes in private. Basically he is admitting that the Republicans had their run, and now it is someone else's turn.

Bush's daughter also refused to say she was voting R, remember that? It was months ago, but she said that she wanted to study the candidates more before making up her mind.

There is a slight chance here that they won't rig this election and just let the chips fall as they normally would.

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Postby lukpac » Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:15 am

Jeff T. wrote:Yeah, the board went down on my end as well. I thought that the heavy useage might have crashed it. :lol:


Something about AT&T inadvertently disconnecting my phone line...
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