PollWatch '08

Expect plenty of disagreement. Just keep it civil.
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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:41 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 353 / McCain 185 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 46 (Obama +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 88.5/McCain 12.2 (Obama +1, McCain -.8 )

Fivethirtyeight aggregate: Obama 51.5/McCain 46.4 (Obama -.7, McCain -.2)

As predicted, the media is hyping the IT'S GETTING CLOSER! story, but the numbers aren't moving enough to reasonably say McCain has a substantial shot. A McCain win would still be a huge upset.

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RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Jeff
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Postby Jeff » Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:48 pm

That could very well be the most phallic chart I've ever seen.

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:58 pm

No, this is:

Image

Interestingly enough, it also predicts an Obama victory.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Jeff
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Postby Jeff » Mon Nov 03, 2008 6:07 pm

Speaking of a bunch of dicks, is there any interest in having another endless drunken thread ala Election Night '04?

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Beatlesfan03
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Postby Beatlesfan03 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:18 pm

I am in, though hopefully in more of a celebratory tone than '04.
Craig

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Beatlesfan03
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Postby Beatlesfan03 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:20 pm

Out of curiosity, anyone take advantage of early voting?

I went last Wednesday and walked away after hearing there was over a two hour wait. Went to the main election office on Thursday morning and was in and out in about 15 minutes.

Good old touchscreens here so while my vote was confirmed as Obama, it was probably +5 for McCain. :twisted:
Craig

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lukpac
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Postby lukpac » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:34 pm

I didn't try, but I heard that in town the wait was around 1.5-2 hours. We'll see how it goes tomorrow...
"I know because it is impossible for a tape to hold the compression levels of these treble boosted MFSL's like Something/Anything. The metal particulate on the tape would shatter and all you'd hear is distortion if even that." - VD

the 801
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Postby the 801 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:04 pm

Voted early on Saturday -- 1.25 hrs total time with .25 hrs spent waiting for the polls to open at one of our local libraries.

The library was so nice, I'm thinking about leaving my books 'n' music collection to them when I shuffle off...

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Jeff T.
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Postby Jeff T. » Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:12 pm

the 801 wrote:The library was so nice, I'm thinking about leaving my books 'n' music collection to them when I shuffle off...


I thought of the same thing, I have borrowed so many discs and books and they have been nice over the many years. But someone would have to sort through the CDR copies (with laser copied inserts) to get to the real deals.

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:53 pm

Me and whatever alcohol is in the house will be making posts here tomorrow night, though I won't get off work until 6:30-7 ET so I'll be a bit late to the party.

As such, I'll need to go vote first thing since I won't have a chance late. We'll see what the polls look like in deep red Kentucky at 6 AM. We don't have that new-fangled "early voting" around here. You have to show up at the polls on the first Tuesday in November and bargain to have your vote purchased then, just like God intended.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Beatlesfan03
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Postby Beatlesfan03 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:19 pm

Rspaight wrote:Me and whatever alcohol is in the house will be making posts here tomorrow night, though I won't get off work until 6:30-7 ET so I'll be a bit late to the party.

As such, I'll need to go vote first thing since I won't have a chance late. We'll see what the polls look like in deep red Kentucky at 6 AM. We don't have that new-fangled "early voting" around here. You have to show up at the polls on the first Tuesday in November and bargain to have your vote purchased then, just like God intended.


This whole early voting thing is new to me as I don't recall having it in Ohio in 2004. I thought early voting meant by absentee so when I heard that they had polls open for the public, I thought it'd give it a shot thinking it being so red here, there probably wouldn't be much of a wait.

Nearly 37% of the county that I am in has voted already and I read that is a marked improvement from 2004.

Of course being in rather hostile territory for a Democrat, I will be glad when all this is said and done as hearing some of the people talk about how great things will be under McCain/Palin is making me sick.

I have to admit that in a sea of McCain/Palin yard signs, someone stuck up a huge "Obama/Biden" banner which made me smile on my drive into town yesterday.
Craig

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Postby David R. Modny » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:57 pm

Refresh my memory Craig - which state are you voting in now?

As for me, even though early voting was an option, I wanted to show up tomorrow. Old habits die hard.

I'm cautiously optimistic right now.

(That's scared shitless in Davespeak)

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:04 pm

There are actually a bunch of Obama signs around here, which is VERY strange. There's no way Obama is carrying the state, but he may well carry Fayette (Lexington) and Jefferson (Louisville) counties, and maybe a few other areas, too.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Jeff T.
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Postby Jeff T. » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:09 pm

I was afraid that if I voted early that there would be more time for someone to hit the delete key on my counted vote. So I'll go tomorrow with everyone else.

No really, there is a huge surge I have been reading about where the Republicans are doing everything they can to keep poor folks from voting. You all know the drill by this time. They make calls, mail out change of venues, threats, etc.

But I am hopeful and remain positive that we will get at least 8 years of Dems in the office with House and Senate, and have time to straighten out the Supreme Court too.
Last edited by Jeff T. on Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Aftermath » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:13 pm

Mostly Obama signs here in S. Florida, 2-4 hour wait lines for early voting, and visits from both candidates about every other day.