PollWatch '08

Expect plenty of disagreement. Just keep it civil.
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krabapple
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Postby krabapple » Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:04 pm

"I recommend that you delete the Rancid Snakepit" - Grant

David R. Modny
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Postby David R. Modny » Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:33 am

RCP is a good place for bundled poll averages - Yahoo's Political Dashboard is simply a mirror of this. But, be forewarned, the site stems from a conservative leaning blog - and their hand-picked, chosen articles reflect this.

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:49 am

I fully expect to see McCain's numbers go up over the next week as his soft support among Republicans and R-leaning independents firms up a bit, but that doesn't really change much as long as Obama's numbers don't go down. Of course, the media will freak out and run the "IT'S GETTING CLOSER!" headlines.

Regardless of the nationwide horse race numbers (which are largely irrelevant), the states that McCain needs to win still look ugly for him:

Image

The shitstorm whipped up by the GOP this week is going to be epic. Wear a raincoat.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Rspaight
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Postby Rspaight » Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:00 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 364 / McCain 157 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 47 (Obama -1, McCain +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 87.8/McCain 12.4 (Obama +.2)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:55 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 375 / McCain 157 (MO from tie to Obama)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 46 (Obama +1, McCain -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 85.6/McCain 15.5 (Obama -2.2, McCain +3.1)

Fivethirtyeight aggregate: Obama 52/McCain 46.6

The national race continues to tighten up (as it always does in the last week), but Obama is still in a good position on the electoral map.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Fri Oct 31, 2008 1:31 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 364 / McCain 171 (IN from Obama to McCain, MT from tie to McCain)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 47 (McCain +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 84.2/McCain 16.8 (Obama -1.4, McCain +1.3)

Fivethirtyeight aggregate: Obama 52/McCain 46.4 (McCain -.2)

Rasmussen sez:

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain's support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month.

However, while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground.This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby David R. Modny » Fri Oct 31, 2008 5:37 pm

Gallup today - individual electoral numbers seem to be steady and solid as well:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallu ... Bases.aspx

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Postby Rspaight » Sat Nov 01, 2008 9:02 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 353 / McCain 185 (MO from Obama to McCain, ND from tie to McCain)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 46 (McCain -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 84.3/McCain 16.7 (Obama +.1, McCain -.1)

Fivethirtyeight aggregate: Obama 52.2/McCain 46.4 (Obama +.2)

The McCain campaign reports:

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby David R. Modny » Sat Nov 01, 2008 10:51 am

Rspaight wrote:
The McCain campaign reports:

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.



Ah yes...the game of spin.

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Postby David R. Modny » Sat Nov 01, 2008 1:02 pm

PA back in play?

While a few other polls still show a pretty good spread (though slightly narrowing), Rasmussen has it down to +4 for Obama in Pennsylvania.

This is one we absolutely have to have. Without it, we start relying on states that, personally, I don't want to rely on.

Considering that they have a heavy labor makeup there, that their economy has taken a huge hit, as well as the fact that they haven't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, and I have to conclude that there's really only one major reason why they wouldn't vote for Obama...it rhymes with the word "place."

This *should* be a slam dunk for us there.

(The upside is that Rasmussen had Kerry up by only +2 there on Nov. 1, 2004. He ended up winning that state by +5...even though he lost the election.)

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Postby Bennett Cerf » Sat Nov 01, 2008 1:41 pm

The PA number is closer than I'd like, but it's still got Obama over 50%. And at least at this point Obama isn't scheduled to return to PA, so his campaign must be pretty confident.

Kerry won PA by 2.5.

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Postby David R. Modny » Sat Nov 01, 2008 2:16 pm

Bennett Cerf wrote:The PA number is closer than I'd like, but it's still got Obama over 50%. And at least at this point Obama isn't scheduled to return to PA, so his campaign must be pretty confident.

Kerry won PA by 2.5.


My bad. I was looking at the 2004 Rasmussen projection on the left, side-by-side with the results chart on the right. It was ultimately +5 in *2000*. Let's hope that a -2.5 downward "trend" doesn't continue...lol!

http://legacy.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm

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Postby Rspaight » Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:53 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 353 / McCain 185 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 46 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 87.5/McCain 13.0 (Obama +3.2, McCain -3.7)

Fivethirtyeight aggregate: Obama 52.2/McCain 46.6 (McCain +.2)

Tick, tick, tick...
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby lukpac » Sun Nov 02, 2008 10:50 am

Rspaight wrote:The McCain campaign reports:

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.


I wonder what the "traditional model" is. Or an "Electoral Vote".
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Postby Rspaight » Sun Nov 02, 2008 11:37 am

"Traditional model" = everyone votes exactly the same way they did in 2004.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney