PollWatch '08

Expect plenty of disagreement. Just keep it civil.
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Rspaight
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PollWatch '08

Postby Rspaight » Tue Sep 30, 2008 10:34 am

Time to start obsessing. I'm only going to report electoral-vote.com (which is a good poll-consolidation site) and Rasmussen (which was the most accurate in 2004). Feel free to throw in other other numbers.

Today's numbers:

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 286 / McCain 225
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 45

We'll start seeing bailout reaction in the next few days. Hang tight.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Beatlesfan03 » Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:37 pm

What about fivethirtyeight.com? It seems to have pretty detailed analytic breakdown, but it seems to go more on the odds then actual numbers.
Craig

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Postby Rspaight » Wed Oct 01, 2008 9:28 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 286 / McCain 190 (Ohio and NC move from McCain to tie)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 45 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 63.8/McCain 35.7

Fivethirtyeight looks interesting. They haven't updated yet today, but I'll add them when they do.

.... and here it is: Obama 338/McCain 202

Quinnipac has Obama up 8 in FL. He'll need margins like that to overcome the Bradley effect.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:48 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 338 / McCain 185 (Obama picks up FL, OH (from tie), NV (from McCain))
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 44 (Obama unchanged, McCain -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 64.7/McCain 35.6
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Fri Oct 03, 2008 2:20 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 338 / McCain 185 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 44 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 65.0/McCain 34.4
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Sat Oct 04, 2008 1:31 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 338 / McCain 185 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 45 (McCain +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 67.0/McCain 32.9
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Sun Oct 05, 2008 4:05 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 329 / McCain 194 (CO moves from Obama to McCain)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 44 (McCain -1)
Intrade odds: Obama 66.7/McCain 32.0
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby David R. Modny » Sun Oct 05, 2008 5:03 pm

Rspaight wrote:Electoral-vote.com: Obama 329 / McCain 194 (CO moves from Obama to McCain)


This one really concerns me, and it's going to be *the* state to watch, IMO, if it ends up being close overall. That is, I certainly don't want to bank on places like Ohio, Virginia, etc...to push us over the top.


And while this one says we're still slightly ahead in CO (using all the averages), how's this for fractured (and hopefully fairly isolated) voting logic?

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politic ... 13838.html


Lisa Martinez, 39, a mother of four who was shopping in the Denver suburb of Westminster, where Obama spoke at a high school earlier in the week, is the sort of Latino Democrat the McCain campaign is targeting.

She moved to Colorado five years ago from New Mexico. She considered herself "a die-hard Democrat" until Obama got the nomination. "I was a Hillary fan, so it's hard for me to want to vote for Obama," she said. "I just have untrust for him."

When Martinez talks about what issues are important to her - she favors abortion rights and wants the government to make health care more affordable - Obama sounds more like her candidate than McCain.

But McCain's addition of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to the ticket - regardless of Palin's anti-abortion and small-government stands - has gotten Martinez thinking seriously about voting for McCain.

"I know it sounds really odd," she said. "But it's about damn time that a woman got into that house. She's a strong woman."

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Postby Rspaight » Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:45 am

A whole lot of people don't vote issues, they vote identification. They want to vote for "someone like them," regardless of political positions.

Which is why anti-intellectual "ordinary folks" like Bush and Palin have a devoted following.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:24 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 329 / McCain 194 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 44 (Obama +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 65.6/McCain 34.0 (Obama -1.1, McCain +2)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby David R. Modny » Mon Oct 06, 2008 11:36 am

Rspaight wrote:A whole lot of people don't vote issues, they vote identification. They want to vote for "someone like them," regardless of political positions.

Which is why anti-intellectual "ordinary folks" like Bush and Palin have a devoted following.


Tragically, these personality voters are the ones who are then left scratching their heads and saying "what happened?" when they're getting fleeced and losing the shirts off their backs.

As romantic a notion it is at the thought of having Jefferson Smith incarnate in modern day Washington...it most certainly isn't Palin, and it definitely isn't McCain.

Obviously, it wasn't Bush either. One would think that at some point a light bulb would click on in terms of the deception. Collectively speaking, I'm hoping '08 is the year!

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Postby Rspaight » Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:38 am

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 349 / McCain 174 (MO, CO move from McCain to Obama)
Rasmussen: Obama 52/McCain 44 (unchanged)
Intrade odds: Obama 69.1/McCain 31.5 (Obama +3.5, McCain -2.5)

I think it's now safe to say that the McCain ticket got no bounce from the VP debate.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby David R. Modny » Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:08 pm

And then there's our "good friends" at FOX. They found the *one* poll yesterday where McCain closed it a point or two...and then declared to the world:

"It's Close Again"

http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10 ... mccain-45/

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Postby Rspaight » Tue Oct 07, 2008 4:14 pm

And of course, the difference between that CBS poll and the others is more or less within the margin of error. Sigh.
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney

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Postby Rspaight » Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:29 pm

Electoral-vote.com: Obama 349 / McCain 174 (unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 51/McCain 45 (Obama -1, McCain +1)
Intrade odds: Obama 70.1/McCain 29.6 (Obama +1, McCain -.9)
RQOTW: "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA." -- Mitt Romney