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As if on cue, after a disastrous week for the Bush team, here's Osama on our TV screens.

However, he's not in custody like we all thought. Instead, he's free, bashing Bush (saying that 9/11 was more successful than he anticipated because Bush was busy reading "My Pet Goat" -- I guess he's seen F9/11), and saying the election is irrelevant -- that US policy is what drives him, not the identity of the President.

What the hell does this mean?

Well, it'll wipe the missing explosives off the front page, which is good for Bush. It'll throw TERRATERRATERRA back onto the CNN and Fox crawls, which is probably good for Bush. It'll remind everyone that Osama is still at large, which is bad for Bush.

The right will spin this as "Osama wants you to vote for Kerry," even though he didn't say that. The left will spin it as "See? He's still out there taunting us because Bush let him get away."

It probably won't make a big difference one way or the other, but it's certainly a big fat wildcard at the last minute.

Of course, if he shows up in custody over the weekend, Bush wins. No if, ands or buts. Of course, the cynic will say that he's already in custody. With my tinfoil hat carefully adjusted, I could imagine this being the setup (filmed by US psyops), then announcement of the capture on Sunday.

Damn, I'm paranoid.

Ryan

October Surprise, Part II:

We start pounding Fallujah. We see OBL on the screen, followed by Bush taking "tough, decisive action" by blowing the crap out of brown people.

Rove is a freakin' evil genius.

US bombs Fallujah, governments scramble for news of hostages
AFP: 10/29/2004

BAGHDAD (AFP) - A US warplane bombed the rebel city of Fallujah even as a team of Iraqi negotiators prepared a last-ditch bid to avert an all-out military assault, while governments scrambled for news of foreign hostages.

Militants said they snatched a Bangladeshi and a Sri Lankan lorry driver and another group paraded a Polish woman on television at gunpoint, but a seven-year-old Lebanese boy kidnapped and held for ransom was released.

The daily chaos -- coupled with a scandal over hundreds of tonnes of missing explosives in the country -- has taken centre stage in the US presidential race, with just four days to go until the vote.

A US warplane bombed a suspected weapons site in the Sunni Muslim bastion of Fallujah, west of the Iraqi capital, on Friday afternoon, a spokesman said.

"We destroyed the site and there was a large secondary explosion," said Major Francis Piccoli, adding that this indicated there had been munitions in the area.

Hospital sources said three people died in the attack and three were wounded.

The assault came as British troops began arriving at a new base southwest of Baghdad, where they are filling in for US forces being sent to fight insurgents.

The contingent of around 850 soldiers from the Black Watch regiment and support personnel began the move from their previous base in Iraq's relatively calm south.

At the same time, Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has agreed to send a delegation of councilors from the interim parliament to Fallujah to try to find a peaceful solution to the standoff, said council member Ahmad al-Barrak.

But Allawi said "this would be the last attempt" at mediation before a possible military assault against the Sunni Muslim bastion, he told AFP.

Some 1,000 US and Iraqi troops have encircled the city for more than two weeks, and are prepared for action if ordered. "We have been gearing up for a major operation since April," said Piccoli.

Unable to fight US-led forces in the open, militants have turned to using foreign hostages as weapons to try to crack Iraq's military coalition.

Staunch US allies Tokyo and Warsaw, however, refused to bow to the demands of groups who have kidnapped a Japanese tourist and a Polish-Iraqi woman.

Japan was holding out hope that 24-year-old Shosei Koda was still alive after a deadline for his execution passed without word from the hostage-takers.

The government went into emergency session after the bullet-riddled remains of an Asian man were found in Tikrit, northern Iraq, but a forensic expert in the city said the body did not match the description of Koda.

"Japan is acting on the assumption that he's still alive and we will continue our efforts to rescue him," Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura told reporters in Tokyo.

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were also scrambling to confirm claims that one of their nationals had each been taken hostage in Iraq.

Al-Jazeera television said Thursday that two drivers, a Bangladeshi and a Sri Lankan, had been abducted by a group calling itself the Islamic Army of Iraq on their way to a US base in the country.

Lebanon breathed a sigh of relief, however, as young Mohammad Abdel Ghani Hamad, whose parents have lived in Iraq for 30 years, was set free after his captors accepted a 2,000 dollar ransom, said his father Abdel Ghani Hamad.

The family, who had initially been asked for 150,000 dollars, planned to return to Lebanon after the week-long ordeal.

Another dark cloud hung over Washington's decision to invade Iraq -- a central theme in speeches by President George W. Bush and White House hopeful John Kerry as they push on with the final days of campaigning ahead of the elections on November 2 -- with the revelation of missing explosives.

A soldier from the army's 3rd Infantry Division has said he helped remove 200 tons of explosives, including plastic explosives, from an Iraqi weapons site from which high explosives have gone missing, a Pentagon spokesman said Friday.

Meanwhile, one Iraqi was killed and eight people wounded, including five US soldiers, in a double car bombing on US military convoys in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, a US army spokeswoman said.

And a deputy governor of Diyalah province in eastern Iraq, was shot dead by unknown attackers, police said.

Back to Part I, already in progress:

Bin Laden: U.S. security depends on policy
New tape aired on Al-Jazeera
Friday, October 29, 2004 Posted: 4:46 PM EDT (2046 GMT)

(CNN) -- Osama bin Laden delivered a new videotaped message in which he told Americans their security does not depend on the president they elect, but on U.S. policy.

He also claimed responsibility for the attacks of September 11, 2001, which killed nearly 3,000 people.

"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda," bin Laden said in the video aired on the Arabic language network Al-Jazeera.

Kerry just needs to hit over and over "Look, the bad guy is still out there, see?"

I'm not *quite* that paranoid to think they'd trot him out on Monday, but I'd *hope* if they did, enough people would view it as a stunt for Bush's own gain.

It's kind of sad/funny when the most sensible talk about 'defeating terror' comes from Osama bin Laden.

I like this quote:

"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands and each state which does not harm our security will remain safe."

It seems to me that he has slightly eased off his whole "Death to America no exceptions stance." I'd just like to know if I am in one of the safe states.

Can't say that I wasn't all that surprised by this. I do think yesterday's may have been a bit more of ruse. On Howard Stern today they were calling the speaker of the tape a "sand wigger."

It will interesting to see the spin from each side. So far, no elevation to orange yet.

I don't think OBL has ever truly held the "death to America no exceptions" stance. That's certainly the stance he needs to send downwards to his ops--suicide bombers and the like--but it tends to be true that the higher-ups in these campaigns have more concrete, less expansive goals.

Think about it. If the US had no military presence in the middle east (not something I'm advocating...just positing as a hypothetical) what exactly would there be to be furious about? It's hard to mobilize an army of people who are so dedicated to blow themselves up for you when your enemy is non-confrontational and an ocean away. If the Middle East wasn't poor, disenfranchised, and being exploited by all corners of the world for their own profit (and, occasionally, their own spiritual imperialism), I doubt the level of hate for America would surpass that of, say, France.

Instead of having the typical blind-superpower response to terrorism--"shit, these people bombed us, let's KEEEL them!"--we should ideally be attempting to stem the source of terrorism at the same time. Local populations pissed because we're occupying bases formally used to keep a second-strike capability an option on the Russians? Do we really need to be there? Obviously callous attitude towards Islam and an all-too-often-singleminded support for Israel? Try to temper these things; at least try to seem like you care! Poverty creating a society where the value of human life is essentially nil, and an "honorable" death is better than a wasted life? Attempt to foster local economic independence and a sense of respect in the great world stage. But nooo. Bomb bomb bomb. "If we kill them all and topple their governments, they won't hate us!"

A strong military response is but one part of a successful antiterrorism campaign. Unfortunately, it seems to comprise at least 90% of ours.

Is anyone surprised, by the way, that we haven't seen terrorism directed at us come out of Africa or Latin America as of yet? Large swathes of those regions have economic, social, and political climates distinctly *below* those in parts of the Middle East--and we're certainly partly to blame for these situations--yet nothing. Quiet. Zip. Perhaps the lack of a motivating, exploitable network like Islam makes all of the difference? Thoughts?

Then again, OBL's moderate talk could just be a way to claim a propaganda role, after the election, for whomever wins.

He's western-educated; I suspecthe'd do well in American politics.

"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands and each state which does not harm our security will remain safe."

It seems to me that he has slightly eased off his whole "Death to America no exceptions stance." I'd just like to know if I am in one of the safe states.

State = Nation

Are we the only country that refers to its subdivisions as "states" instead of the clearer "province" or "territory"? Sure is confusing.

Ryan

Rspaight wrote:

"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands and each state which does not harm our security will remain safe."

It seems to me that he has slightly eased off his whole "Death to America no exceptions stance." I'd just like to know if I am in one of the safe states.

State = Nation

Are we the only country that refers to its subdivisions as "states" instead of the clearer "province" or "territory"? Sure is confusing.

Ryan

I guess I assumed state as individual since the message was directed to the American people.

Because then we'd have to change our name to "The United Provinces of America"

UPA! UPA! UPA!

"State" is the standard nomenclature for "country/nation" in IR speak, so yes, we are a bit nonstandard in that regard. That said, internationally, "state" is most nearly synonymous with "sovereign nation."

This contest is over. You have Public Enemy #1 basically daring people to vote for Bush. If there are truly any swing voters out there, there's got to be at least a decent number of them thinking, "F*ck Bin Laden, I'm voting for Bush and sticking it to him!" Well, maybe not to that degree, but looking at where we are in this election, how much exposure the average person has had from both candidates, how well-defined both have become, if you're still a swing voter, how can it not sway you that way? It's got to put him over the top, you can't ask for a better example of reverse psychology.

On the other hand, what about the fact that he *is* still out there. Why hasn't Bush gotten him yet?

I'm not so sure this is a boon to Bush. We'll see.

As long as the polls stay so close, I think Kerry has a good shot, looking back to 2000 (Gore a few points down, but still took the popular vote).

This contest is over. You have Public Enemy #1 basically daring people to vote for Bush.

I can't wait until this election's over, and people (hopefully) come back to their senses.