See bolding below.
On average, Bush leads state, but poll numbers vary widely
Surveys in Wisconsin reflect state's crucial role in election
By CRAIG GILBERT
cgilbert@journalsentinel.com
Posted: Sept. 22, 2004
Reflecting a similar pattern in national surveys, a raft of new Wisconsin polls offers divergent pictures of the presidential race, from a dead heat to a burgeoning lead for George W. Bush.
According to a new statewide Badger Poll, Bush enjoys a clear advantage in Wisconsin, a state Democrats have carried since the 1980s and can ill afford to lose.
Bush not only leads Democrat John Kerry by double digits in the poll, but is viewed much more favorably by Wisconsinites and enjoys an immense advantage on the issue of terrorism.
A new ABC News poll of likely voters in Wisconsin offers similar findings. Bush holds a 10-point lead in that survey, enjoys a big edge over Kerry on handling terrorism and Iraq, and is seen by far more voters as a strong leader.
A poll released last week by Gallup also showed Bush leading Kerry, in that case by eight points.
But that's not the whole story.
In non-partisan Wisconsin surveys released this week by the American Research Group, Mason-Dixon and Zogby Interactive, Bush and Kerry are within two points of each other.
The sheer volume of public polling in the state is a measure of Wisconsin's competitiveness and strategic importance.
Who's really winning?
But what does it say about where things stand between Bush and Kerry?
Political scientist Charles Franklin of the University of Wisconsin said that given the normal variation from one poll to another, the surveys should be taken together.
"Averaging across three or four or five polls in a similar time period is a way better estimate of what opinion in the state really is than counting on any one poll for everything," Franklin said.
That would put the race about where some outside analysts see it: a Bush advantage, perhaps mid-single digits, but one that is hardly etched in stone.
The Badger Poll, taken Sept. 15-21 by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, interviewed 504 eligible voters. Among them, Bush led Kerry 52% to 38%, with independent Ralph Nader at 4%. The results were the same when only likely voters were questioned.
Pollster G. Donald Ferree Jr. said the survey suggests that while views of the incumbent president are somewhat mixed, "at least in the short run, Kerry has not been doing very well in meeting the test of being that acceptable alternative."
In a June Badger Poll, 36% of those surveyed had a favorable impression of Kerry and 36% had an unfavorable impression.
In the new poll, Kerry's favorable rating remained the same, but his unfavorable rating climbed to 48%.
Bush's advantages over Kerry are striking in some areas. Asked who will protect the United States from terrorism, 52% said Bush and 15% said Kerry. That margin grew over the last Badger Poll in June. Asked who has a consistent record on the issues, 46% said Bush and 16% said Kerry.
Neither candidate enjoyed an advantage on the questions of who would improve the economy, deal well with the federal budget or understand the problems ordinary people face. Kerry enjoyed an edge on protecting the environment.
Ferree said he thinks the election dynamics in the state are "playing to Bush's strengths at the moment. (But) I do not think this reflects a settled and determined choice."
In the ABC poll released Wednesday night, Kerry enjoys a small advantage among Wisconsin voters on jobs and health care, but Bush has a much larger edge on handling terrorism and Iraq. Bush also enjoys a big edge on a number of personal attributes, from taking clear stands, to being a strong leader to having an appealing personality.
In the ABC poll, as in the Badger Poll, more people had a negative view of Kerry than positive view. That wasn't true of Bush.
But both the ABC and Mason-Dixon polls found significant division and unease over the war in Iraq. Half of registered voters in the ABC poll said the war in Iraq wasn't worth fighting.
Bush's best bet
The two campaigns are fighting fiercely over Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes. Even some Democrats believe Wisconsin is Bush's best opportunity to pick up a state he lost in 2000. Among the reasons: the closeness (two-tenths of percentage point) of the contest four years ago; a 2004 job rebound that is stronger than in other battlegrounds; and the Bush campaign's intense strategic focus on the state.
The President will make his fourth bus trip in Wisconsin Friday, stopping in Janesville and Racine. Kerry, meanwhile, will spend parts of four days in the state beginning Sunday, a stretch largely devoted to preparation for his first debate with Bush next Thursday in south Florida.
Kerry spokesman George Twigg termed the Badger Poll flawed.
"The majority of polling continues to show this race is a dead heat. If there's any advantage (for Bush), it's very slight," said Twigg.
"We continue to believe that Bush's wrong priorities on health care costs and job losses and other key issues are going to hurt him in the long run," Twigg said.
Twigg also contended that the pool of voters surveyed in the Badger Poll was skewed toward Republicans. Republicans accounted for 36% of those surveyed in the Badger Poll, Democrats 29%. In the ABC poll, Republicans made up 35% of the likely voters surveyed, Democrats 29%.
Twigg pointed out that Democrats were a bigger share of the state's 2000 voters than Republicans, according to exit polls.
Franklin, of the University of Wisconsin, said that's one reason to view these polls as a snapshot rather than a forecast, since the makeup of the state's electorate in November is unlikely to be as Republican as it is in the latest Badger Poll.
Bush strategist Sara Taylor said Wednesday that in the aggregate the recent polls suggest the president enjoys a lead of five or six points in Wisconsin, similar to where the race is nationally, she said. She contended Kerry has been hurt by campaign stumbles in the state, including fumbling the name of the Green Bay Packers' Lambeau Field, calling it "Lambert."
"Also, the economy has improved. That has an impact," said Taylor. "But it's certainly a state that's going to be very competitive to the end."
The disparity in current polls is not confined to Wisconsin. For instance, a recent national Gallup poll taken Sept. 13-15 gave Bush a 14-point lead, while a Pew poll taken Sept. 11-14 gave Bush a one-point lead. In a poll released Wednesday by NBC News, Bush's lead was four points.
Pollsters say some of the differences reflect volatility in the electorate, some reflect different techniques for sampling voters and identifying who is and isn't likely to vote.
But much of the polling spread is simply normal variation, said Franklin, who has monitored the differences in presidential survey results throughout the year.
"These variations are fairly typical of how much variation we see in polling," says Franklin. He said the average variation in presidential polls in this race has been between seven and eights points in each direction.
"If Bush is up by seven, you'd expect to see, out of a bunch of polls, one or two showing him up by 12 or 14 and one or two show him down by one," said Franklin.
From the Sept. 23, 2004, editions of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
But, it gives me a first-hand, direct line to how the average American thinks.
