Code: Select all
Kerry 83,770 39%
Dean 57,353 26%
Clark 27,041 13%
Edwards 26,239 12%
Lieberman 18,679 9%
Kucinich 3,071 1%
Sharpton 345 0%
A thirteen-point spread is *not* what Dean needed here. Kerry is The Man, and Edwards the only one who can give him a run for his money. And if Edwards loses in South Carolina next week, he's out of it.
Kerry's got the momentum, and the party establishment is going to quickly fall into line behind him to wrap things up. They saw last week's Newsweek poll that had Kerry beating Bush head-to-head, and they have no interest in prolonging the "circular firing squad" of the primaries.
Dean had better win something next week, or he's gone. (Even though he actually has the lead in delegates right now, thanks to "superdelegates" that went with him early, that will evaporate quickly next week if he continues to lose.) He had by far the best speech of the bunch tonight, cool, articulate, focused and (yes) angry. Everyone else just mouthed platitudes and bumper stickers.
Clark and Edwards ran to a virtual dead heat for third. That's a win for Edwards and a loss for Clark. If all skipping Iowa can do for you is a tie for third in NH, then there are problems. (And let's take a moment to acknowledge the major media squelching of the Bush AWOL story yet again, by turning it into a liability for Clark instead of for Bush.) Not doing any interviews is never a good sign. Clark is just about finished -- it's entirely possible (if not likely) that Sharpton will beat him in South Carolina. If he pulls out Oklahoma (the only state next week I think he has a shot at), he might hang on a few more weeks, but he has zero momentum.
Lieberman is running on pure self-delusion at this point. No, Joe, there wasn't a three-way tie for third. You came in fifth. Deal with it. Game over.
This could well be over next week, unless Dean stages a huge comeback or Kerry stumbles badly. Edwards is the X-factor.
Ryan